It’s actually a novel day when iRunFar publishes an article a couple of race’s climate forecast.
Have we talked about the climate in previews, interviews, and race outcomes? Numerous instances. However the forecast for this 12 months’s Western States 100 is wanting particular, with a excessive of 74 levels Fahrenheit on Saturday, June 27, in line with Wunderground as of Friday night. (The forecast was for a excessive of 73F when this text was first written.) That’s 16 levels Fahrenheit (F) cooler than the common race-day excessive.
Whereas not absolutely the hottest spot on the course — that title goes to the underside of among the canyons — the city of Auburn, California, is the exemplary spot the place the race’s official excessive temperature is recorded each race Saturday. The common excessive so far is 90F.
Ellie Greenwood clearly having a little bit of enjoyable in Robinson Flat on her technique to setting the then course report on the 2012 Western States 100. Photograph: iRunFar/Bryon Powell
The 2 years with the bottom excessive temperatures so far had been 66F in 1991 and 71F in 2012.
In 1991, Tom Johnson set the boys’s course report and have become the primary individual to interrupt 16 hours — 15:54:05 — on the complete 100.2-mile course, whereas Ann Trason received for the third-straight time in 18:29:37.
In 2012, Timothy Olson grew to become the primary individual to interrupt the 15-hour barrier in working 14:46:44, whereas Ellie Greenwood took 72 minutes off Trason’s later 1994 course report by working 16:47:19. That is the type of 12 months the place myself, Andy Jones-Wilkinsafter which Assistant Race Director Craig Thornley had been all up within the chilly drizzle at Robinson Flat telling each other, “I certain want I had a bib!”
Timothy Olson setting the then course report on the 2012 Western States 100. Photograph: iRunFar/Bryon Powell
The one different 12 months with a excessive beneath 80F was 2005, with a excessive of 78F. I ran it. It was dreamy. It was solely my second 100 miler, however I solely ever managed to run six minutes quicker in one other 100 miler. In different phrases, a sub-80F day at Western States is the stuff of goals.
The present males’s course report of 14:09:28 was run by Jim Walmsley on a day with a excessive of 83F in 2019. Courtney Dauwalter ran the ladies’s course report of 15:29:33 in 2023, which noticed a excessive of simply 80F.
Jim Walmsley on his technique to setting the present course report on the 2019 Western States 100. Photograph: iRunFar/Meghan Hicks
Having adopted the entrance of the fields in 20-plus Western States, I’ve seen that the intuitive view on climate holds. Cooler climate results in much less carnage. Even when it takes some time, sizzling days ultimately take their toll and blow the sphere aside with loads of front-of-the-field DNFs. I don’t wish to get into the realm of hyperbole, however the males’s subject and girls’s subject are sturdy and deep. The inherent depth on the entrance, together with a a lot decrease blow-up fee and fewer warmth limitation on particular person performances, seemingly means exhausting racing for the win. That’s the type of aggressive scenario that occurred on the London Marathon earlier this 12 months, when two runners broke two hours and a 3rd went underneath the marathon world report.
Courtney Dauwalter setting a brand new course report on the 2023 Western States 100. Photograph: iRunFar/Meghan Hicks
And it’s not simply quick instances at that entrance which are seemingly. Of the 5 years with giant fields* with over 80% ending charges, you’ve gotten 4 years with decrease excessive temperatures of 71F (2012), 80F (2023), 82F (2011), and 83F (2019), together with the outlier 12 months of 2018, which topped out at 98F.
Let’s shut out with a number of observations that transcend the excessive in Auburn on Saturday. Lengthy-time followers of the race may be conversant in the time period “pre-baking,” which refers to what can occur within the race’s decrease canyon sections when it’s notably sizzling and sunny within the days main as much as the occasion, when the rocks soak up warmth and grow to be their very own thermal engines. That’s vital in two methods, as these canyons can usually prime out at 10 or extra levels Fahrenheit over the official excessive, and that pre-baking can result in a lot earlier excessive warmth within the canyons for the front-runners and protracted warmth all through the night time for the remainder of the sphere. Nicely, the present forecast contains some clouds in Auburn on each Friday and Saturday mornings, together with fairly average pre-race temperatures within the low-to-mid 80Fs. What’s extra, the forecast low for Saturday night time is a dreamy 52F.
Let’s get excited! That is the stuff of PRs, and possibly additionally course data!
A really excited Bryon Powell and Andy Jones-Wilkins within the chilly drizzle of Robinson Flat throughout the 2012 Western States 100. “Puffy jackets? At Western States!!” Photograph: iRunFar/Bryon Powell
* In different phrases, for those who exclude the pioneering years of 1974 and 1976, the place the only starter completed annually.
